Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.194111 18.474845 20.940868 23.802756 27.030055 30.554115 34.691202
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 12.357512 15.321402 18.778644 23.099130 28.343466 34.492113 42.236634
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 10.655095 13.930665 17.939930 23.189598 29.862088 38.038269 48.793447
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.461846 12.963812 17.435615 23.534986 31.604483 41.877704 55.906433
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 8.487937 12.114077 16.918022 23.706068 33.001984 45.230581 62.471293
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 7.564149 11.210119 16.206713 23.499373 33.805875 47.773581 68.044080
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 6.930017 10.629359 15.857704 23.715950 35.142129 51.047564 74.736680
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.542915 10.357193 15.902220 24.462788 37.236325 55.454257 83.231197
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.940760 9.699167 15.315748 24.216224 37.834852 57.720083 88.733485
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 5.170865 8.706896 14.138419 22.971935 36.828678 57.536730 90.561719
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.919306 8.511079 14.162799 23.565370 38.638187 61.622636 98.993644
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 4.697549 8.341074 14.207666 24.180899 40.501261 65.868225 107.873710
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 4.309377 7.866872 13.737159 23.948579 41.027668 68.115811 113.844783
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.914590 7.346309 13.148854 23.475054 41.123211 69.677421 118.804929
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 3.648006 7.025498 12.868074 23.488818 42.008696 72.532550 125.979688
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.465555 6.839718 12.803711 23.864599 43.519872 76.482029 135.156163
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.266158 6.603989 12.630358 24.029195 44.663690 79.860268 143.526284
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 3.030582 6.278274 12.267979 23.822718 45.129416 82.091510 150.026408
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.874073 6.091597 12.145387 24.041141 46.358680 85.688900 159.058050
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.798605 6.058828 12.307627 24.797936 48.607471 91.180397 171.691358
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 2.604579 5.768714 11.954961 24.548084 48.965624 93.305972 178.386995
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 2.311512 5.247460 11.112058 23.287754 47.332054 91.725261 178.244672
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 2.245832 5.202072 11.211369 23.888851 49.298768 96.848181 190.693228